This is the sum-of-the-parts from the report, live. Move any slider and every number below recalculates. All three scenarios stay pinned at the top as you scroll, so you can watch every one move together. Nothing is saved and nothing is sent anywhere — it runs entirely in your browser.
EJEdwin P. Jacques @EdwinPJacquesIndependent · not affiliated with ImmunityBio
Against a share price of $7.32 — the prior close on the publication date. Held fixed so the multiples stay reproducible against the report.
The two inputs that decide almost everything
The report argues these are where the analysis is most vulnerable. Start here.
BCG-naive penetration, launch year
Base 4.5%, benchmarked to launch-year penetration measured from J-code availability rather than approval: Adstiladrin ~2–3% and ANKTIVA’s own second-line launch ~3–5%, both in the harder unresponsive setting. The bull case (8–10%) is not on that curve — it assumes a partial standard-of-care transition toward a 50–70% ceiling. Still the single most consequential input here.
Commercial EV/Sales multiple, 2032
Base 9x. Mature comps run 4.6x (Neurocrine) to 15x (Alnylam). Vertex, the closest analog on margin and exclusivity, sits at 9–10x.
Pipeline, valued separately
CG Oncology carries roughly $4.75bn of enterprise value on essentially no revenue, for one pre-commercial NMIBC asset. That is the benchmark these are set against.
Total risk-adjusted pipeline value, 2032 ($m)
Base $2,000m, bull $4,000m — BCG-naive has commercialised by then, leaving NSCLC, lymphopenia, sepsis and the NK platform. Pipeline value falls over time as programmes convert to revenue: the report carries $8,300m in the bull case today against $4,000m by 2032. The ceiling here is four remaining programmes each at roughly CG Oncology's $4.75bn — a platform outcome, not a forecast.
Price realisation
Not a strategy lever. A voluntary US price cut would most likely reduce adoption, because Medicare pays ASP plus 6% and the practice's margin is a percentage of price — halving the price halves what a urologist earns per dose while their costs stay put. This slider models price being cut from outside: most-favoured-nation policy, or payer concession on a first-line population four times larger than today's.
Net price realised, % of today's
Base 100% — $29,714 net per dose after a ~17% gross-to-net. CMS has proposed the GLOBE model for Part B with a 1 October 2026 effective date; it is not finalised. Commercial revenue scales directly with this, so a 20% cut takes roughly $530m off the 2032 base line before any volume response.
Share count and balance sheet
These are consequences of the penetration assumption, not independent choices. A weak launch means a deeper cash trough, ATM draws at depressed prices, and a convertible that restructures on worse terms. Leave them linked unless you specifically want to test a different financing path.
Anchored on the report's three cases: 1,653m shares and +$570m net cash in the bear case, 1,289m and +$1,612m in the base, 1,278m and +$4,692m in the bull.
Fully diluted shares, 2032 (m)
Base 1,289m. The bear case reaches 1,653m because the convertible restructures at a distressed price and the warrants expire worthless.
Net cash / (debt), 2032 ($m)
Base +$1,612m after the Oberland liability amortises and the convertible converts to equity.
What the sliders are actually doing. Every slider moves all three scenarios. Commercial revenue for 2032 scales off the BCG-naive penetration assumption — base 4.5% corresponds to $2,650m of revenue, against $1,050m in the bear case and $4,600m in the bull. That revenue takes the EV/Sales multiple, the pipeline is added on top, then net cash, then divided by the share count. Because bear and bull start from their own multiple, pipeline, share count and balance sheet, the multiple, pipeline and share sliders apply proportionally to each case rather than overwriting it, and net cash applies as a delta. So the scenarios keep what makes them bear and bull, but your view on any single input carries across all three.
Disclosure. Written by Edwin P. Jacques (@EdwinPJacques). The author holds a substantial long position in ImmunityBio, Inc. (NASDAQ: IBRX) and is therefore not disinterested. For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. No financial decisions should be made on the basis of this material. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making any personal investment decision. No warranties of correctness are expressed or implied. All figures are estimates based on stated assumptions that may prove incorrect.